ICT industry: Information Technology Outlook 2009
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OECD predicts a difficult year
for IT
 Tuesday
December 23 - The Organization of Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) predicts a difficult 2009 for the IT
sector.
The OECD is forecasting zero growth in 2009, while the
IT sector in 2008 still increased with 4% compared with
a roller coaster year 2007. Even a decrease of the revenues
is not going to be excluded. This is in the IT Outlook 2008
of the OECD: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/37/26/41895578.pdf.
The Organization believes that after 2009 growth can be
restored dependent on certain conditions such as investments
in product development.
The OECD is an association of 30, mainly Western member
states, including the Netherlands.
Non-member states
In spite of the strong economic growth in emerging economies
like China, Russia, and India, spending levels on IT products
declined already last year. This trend will prevail also
in 2009 the researcher predict.
Especially manufacturers of semiconductors such as NXP and
Intel will encounter heavy weather. The OECD expects for
the Chips vendors a consolidated loss of 6% for 2009. In
2008 the sector would have made a profit of 2,2%. Earlier
in December 2008 the research organization iSuppli publicized
figures that demonstrated a loss of 2% in the semiconductor
industry of 2008. iSuppli does share the somber outlook
of the semiconductor market with the OECD.
Investments
While 2009 will be a lesser year the OECD expects that
there will be investments in infrastructure and Internet
related companies. However the credit crisis could slow
down investors and cause them to wait.
To read the complete rapport, click
here.
 CIC's
best estimate for 2009 is:
- In spite of the problems the ICT sector will keep up
and will be relatively strong; major ICT companies are
financially still in good shape, however financial performance
outlook is weakening, beginning with the Chip vendors
and their suppliers which are at the beginning of the
supply chain and first to feel the effects of a decreasing
demand.
- Innovation stays the driving force of the ICT market;
digital infrastructure (broadband), digital content and
mobility are the key factors for more demand of consumers,
companies, and government.
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